The market recession has severely tested the confidence of the normally optimistic construction industry. Four years of struggling markets have taken a toll. However, the slow-but-steady recovery of the U.S. economy has many firms in the industry now believing that the worst is behind them and that a broad recovery is poised to begin. The recovery of the industry’s optimism can be seen in the most recent ENR Construction Industry Confidence Index (CICI) survey.
The CICI measures executive sentiment about the current market as well as projections for where it will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period. The index is based on responses to surveys sent out to more than 3,000 U.S. firms on ENR’s lists of the leading contractors, subcontractors and design firms. The latest results are based on a survey conducted from Feb. 22 to March 12.
The first-quarter 2012 CICI rose to 58 on a scale of 100, up 16 points from 42 in the last quarter. (A CICI rating of 50 would represent a stable market.) The 464 executives of large construction and design firms responding to the survey believe the market has stabilized and is beginning to show signs of recovery.
CICI还衡量了关于美国整体经济的情绪，作为未来建设趋势的主要指标。在第一季度，对美国经济的信心上升至上一季度的49个CICI评级，这表明该行业的受访者认为经济状况良好。
Another sign of the industry’s optimism is that, while only 19% of respondents say the market is continuing to decline, 21% believe the market now is improving. This marks the first time since ENR began to conduct the CICI survey in the first quarter of 2009 that more respondents believe the market is growing than believe it is still declining. While respondents are not ebullient about near-term prospects, 31% believe the market will improve in three to six months’ time, compared to 12% that believe it will still be in decline.
However, the industry’s expectations for the market in 2013 may be cause for real excitement. Only 6% of respondents believe the market will continue to be in decline in 12 to 18 months, while 53% say it will be improving.
Applying the CICI formula to individual market sectors shows that respondents believe the private-sector markets will lead the recovery. The petroleum market is perceived to be the strongest, with a CICI rating of 76, up from 69 in the fourth quarter of 2011. Multi-unit residential (up 4 points) and power (up 6 points) both came in at 71. Health care was also seen as a strong market, rising 2 points to 69.
Some of the markets most affected by the recession gained the most in the first quarter survey. The retail market, once the lowest-rated market, rose 8 points to a CICI rating of 51, showing some optimism that this sector finally has stabilized. The distribution and warehouse market also rose by 8 to 51, while the commercial office market was up eight points to 47. The only market to fall was the entertainment and theme-park sector, which dropped a point to 41.
主要在公共部门的市场通常会上升，但并非其私营部门的范围。直到联邦刺激资金开始耗尽之前，运输部门被视为经济衰退中最强大的市场之一，导致其评级下降。但是在这个季度，运输市场反弹，上升了5分。水和下水道市场上涨了2分，得分为53。尽管州和地方预算短缺以及联邦资金不确定性，但现在两者都被认为是稳定的。
但是，调查参与者认为K-12教育部门仍处于衰落状态，仅升高到44点。现在，它被认为是仅次于娱乐和主题公园行业的第二弱市场行业。高等教育市场不变为53。
