Inflation had its last hurrah during the first half of this year and it was quite impressive with both steel and oil prices soaring to record levels despite a subprime mortgage crisis that was destroying the housing industry. But then the Fat Lady sang and the full extent of the financial crisis started to reveal itself. With banks, insurance companies, Wall Street investment firms and the automotive industry all lining up for bailouts, commodity prices started to tumble. Oil prices fell from over $140 per barrel to less than $70. Steel prices also started to head down and economists expect them to keep falling through most of next year. Unemployment started to soar, and will undermine wage negotiations next year. To make matters worse, the problem is worldwide with Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Latin America all struggling. Demand is drying up and that is driving prices down.
低迷的背景下,国际预测,其B新利luckuilding Cost Index, after rising 5.3% this year, will post a rare 0.5% decline in 2009 as steel, lumber and cement prices all fall. However, materials only make up 20% of ENR’s Construction Cost Index. As a result, the CCI is projected to increase 1.2% by the end of next year, after climbing 5.7% in 2008.
这两个趋势指出了劳动成本在预测ENR指数中的重要性。18luck.cub新利luck工会工资率（包括边缘）占CCI的80％和BCI的65％。一年前，ENR的预测要求新利luckBCI的熟练劳动成分增长4.3％，CCI的劳动者组成部分增加了4.7％。熟练劳动力的实际增长为4.0％，在ENR的20个城市中的劳动者为5.2％。新利luck
Multiyear collective bargaining agreements are usually a good benchmark for predicting the following year’s wage trends. This year that indicator is a bit murky. The Construction Labor Research Council, Washington. D.C., reports this year the average union wage for bricklayers increased 3.6%, while that for carpenters increased 5.0%. However, CLRC says there are “too few agreements to show a meaningful average for 2009” for skilled workers. On average, laborers in multiyear contracts have negotiated a 4.7% increase for next year.
但是，随着失业率飙升，很难匹配2009年的工会当地人在2009年进行谈判。11月，美国劳工部报道建筑的失业率为12.7％，一年前是两倍以上。新利luckEnr认为，情况将抑制工资压力，并预测明年的劳动力成本将增加3.5％至3.7％。18luck.cub
商品价格崩溃
ENR成本指数的材料组件由木材，水泥和结构钢组成。新利luck这三个价格的价格均在2009年下降。最重要的波动将来自钢铁价格，钢价占BCI的22％和CCI的13％。
“It’s safe to say that the only direction for steel in the next six months is down,” says John Mothersole, an economist with Washington, D.C.-based forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. Structural-steel prices peaked in the third quarter of this year at $1,094 a ton, which was $465 higher than the third quarter of 2007. However, the rapid deterioration in both the domestic and global markets, especially demand for scrap metal from China, has pushed structural-steel prices back 15% this quarter, says Mothersole. He predicts prices will decline another 20% by the second quarter of next year before firming.
母亲指出：“很大的能力正在离线拉动，这将有助于钢铁价格的最低点。”“随着所有刺激被吸引到全球经济价格中，可能比预期的要快。”
However, Global Insight’s prediction is for prices to remain weak through 2010. “The nonresidential building market is starting to falter and we don’t see that making a quick comeback,” says Mothersole. ENR’s forecast calls for structural-steel prices to decline 10.3% by next December.
The Portland Cement Association, Skokie, Ill., estimates that total cement consumption will decline 12.8% this year. Producers so far have been able blunt the downward pressure on prices by drastically cutting back on imports. In October, the producer price index for cement was down just 1.9% from a year ago. Producers are unlikely to maintain this discipline next year when PCA predicts another 11.9% decline in consumption. As a result, ENR’s forecast calls for cement prices to decline 1.7% next year, while Global Insight sees a 2.3% decline.
Next year is going to be another dismal one for housing, with Global Insight predicting starts to fall as low as 700,000. This will keep lumber prices low but there is not much more room for them to decline, says Paul Janke, economist with Bedford, Mass.-based forecasting firm RISI. “If prices stay where they are much longer we are going to see massive mill closures,” he says. That would cut production by 10% next year. ENR’s forecast calls for lumber prices to fall another 3.5% next year.
