The depth of the current recession is best measured by declines in construction costs, and they have taken their biggest tumble since the Great Depression of the 1930s. McGraw-Hill Construction forecasts that the recession will tighten its grip on the nonresidential building markets next year despite the best stimulus efforts. It is forecasting the dollar value of nonresidential building starts to fall another 2% next year, following a 30% decline in 2009. Even with a predicted 32% increase in housing starts in 2010, the deteriorating nonresidential building market and double-digit unemployment will keep construction costs on a short leash in 2010.
With that background, ENR is forecasting that its Construction Cost Index will increase 2.3% next year, while the Building Cost Index will increase 1.3%. A year ago, ENR predicted inflation measured by the CCI would fall from 5.7% in 2008 to 1.2% this year. The CCI actually ended the year with a 1.1% gain. The same forecast predicted the BCI would decline 0.5% this year, after a 5.3% increase in 2008. After some ups and downs, the BCI ended 2009 at the same level it started.
The Forecast Formula
The accuracy of ENR’s forecast is heavily influenced by union wage settlements, which account for 80% of the CCI and 65% of the BCI. This year, the average union wage and benefits settlements increased 2.7%, according to the Construction Labor Research Council, Washington, D.C. The labor component of ENR’s CCI also increased 2.7%, while the labor component of the BCI rose 3.1%.
CLRC说，这些增长远低于2008年平均4.6％。CLRC总裁罗伯特·加斯佩罗（Robert Gasperow）说：“今年的下降部分是由于超过10％的冻结或减少合同的结果。”他补充说，今年的结果也以较少的多年协议的特征。
的178个定居点CLRC追踪的,湾rs 152,830 workers, the average negotiated increase for next year is 3.6%. Normally, this is a good benchmark for forecasting ENR’s wages. However, with fewer second-year agreements on the books and with construction unemployment stuck in double digits, ENR believes wage settlements next year will be lucky to match this year’s gains. As a result, ENR is forecasting the labor component of the CCI to increase 3.3% next year, while the skilled-labor component of the BCI is expected to increase 3.0% in 2010.
The materials side of the cost-index equation is mixed. Most market forecasts for 2010 call for the housing market to rebound back to 2008’s level after hitting bottom in 2009. This should give lumber prices in the indexes a temporary boost. However, the deepening of the nonresidential building market recession will continue to undermine the indexes’ other two materials prices: structural steel and portland cement. In balance, ENR is forecasting a 1.9% decline in the materials component of both of its indexes next year. This follows a 5.6% decline in the materials component during 2009.
2010年的实际人工成18luck.cub本甚至可能更为温和。纽约市特纳建筑公司副总裁卡尔·阿尔姆斯特德（Karl Almstead）说：“竞争是激烈的，公司正在寻求削减成本。18luck.cub”指数。自今年年初以来，特纳指数衡量了建筑的销售价格并反映竞争性投标的价格下降了12.6％。Almstead说：“这些是自大萧条以来我们记录的最大减少。”
“每个人都在看着那大可变人力成本costs—and thinking they can cut something,” says Almstead. “Some of that productivity is real because firms have a better selection of workers. With unemployment so high they are not forced to go to the bench all the time. But some of it is wishful thinking, and, come next year, if they can’t make those productivity gains before the markets turns back up, there will be a lot of people struggling to stay alive.”
Spikes and Slumps
Structural steel accounts for 24% of the BCI and 13% of the CCI. ENR’s steel component fell 5.6% this year, and 2010 should be equally tough.
总部位于2004年以来的钢筋，钢板和纸板的价格下降到其最低水平，但结构价格“固执地很高”。
“Given how much scrap prices have fallen and how much demand is down and how much unused capacity there is in the industry, structural-steel prices should have fallen below $600 a ton, but they are holding at around $640 a ton,” says Anton. He predicts that after some fluctuations to rebuild inventory, structural-steel prices will fall 4.7%, to $610 a ton by December 2010. ENR’s forecast calls for steel prices to decline another 4.8% next year.
Lumber prices will get an initial boost in the first half of next year as the housing market rebounds from this year’s low point. This would reverse four years of falling prices. However, it won’t take long for the lumber industry, which is currently operating at 70% of capacity, to gear back up, leaving prices at the end of next year close to where they currently are, says Robert Berg, lumber economist for the Bedford, Mass.-based forecasting firm RISI. ENR believes its contractor prices will lag behind the decline in mill prices and is forecasting its lumber price to end 2010 5.2% higher than this year.
水泥价格也将几乎没有增长的空间。伊利诺伊州斯科基的波特兰水泥协会预测，明年的水泥消费将在今年下跌50.3％之后再下跌0.7％。全球洞察力预测水泥价格将在2010年下跌0.9％。ENR的预测还要求水泥价格下跌0.9％。新利luck
