建筑市场不断增长，但对未来的不确定性也是如此。自2008年的金融崩溃以来，经济崩溃并与建筑进行了建设，建筑公司的恢复缓慢而稳定。但是，行业高管正在看到增长放缓的迹象。
|
Related Link: 第一季度费用报告 |
The ENR Construction Industry Confidence Index for the first quarter shows that, of the 239 executives of large construction and design firms responding to the survey, most believe market growth will begin to level off by the end of this year and be flat in 2017. The CICI index was 61 on a scale of 100 in the first-quarter survey, down seven points from the fourth quarter.
The CICI measures executive sentiment about the current market and reflects the respondents’ views on where it will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period. The index is based on responses to surveys sent out to more than 6,000 U.S. firms on ENR’s lists of leading general contractors, subcontractors and design firms. The latest results are from a survey conducted from Feb. 24 through March 16.
尽管只有大多数石油高管认为他们的行业目前正在下降，但来自其他部门的受访者认为他们的市场处于增长模式。但是，当被问及到2017年中期的前景时，高管们说，在接受调查的15个市场中，有5个将会下降，而另外几个则基本上是平坦的。
For example, 40% of those surveyed believe the overall market currently is growing, and only 15% believe it is declining. However, only 31% of respondents think the market will still be growing in mid-2017, while 23% predict it will be declining at that point.
新泽西州普林斯顿建筑金融管理协会最新的Confindex调查的即将发布的结果也显示出谨慎的态度。CFMA每季度从一般和民事承包商和分包商中调查200 CFO。
CFMA Sees Uncertainty Ahead
While a Confindex rating of 100 indicates a stable market, higher ratings show growth is expected. “Our Confindex fell from 128 in the fourth quarter, down to 123 [on a scale of 200] in this quarter,” says Stuart Binstock, CEO of CFMA. “All four components of the Confindex declined.”
Binstock goes on to note that the “current business conditions” component of the Confindex dropped 10 points, to 126, this quarter, and the year-ahead outlook component fell to 117 from 122. “Economic circumstances are pretty good right now. But with all the uncertainties surrounding the global economy, the stock market and the upcoming presidential election, our members are waiting for the hammer to drop,” he says.
There are real fears among CFOs that 2017 will see the market flatten out, says Anirban Basu, CEO of economic consultant Sage Policy Group Inc., Baltimore, and CFMA economic adviser. He notes that there are three stages to a construction cycle: the downturn, when firms are forced to live off backlog and scramble for margins; the recovery, when the market and margins begin to rise and firms build backlog; and stability, when it begins to get tougher to maintain backlog and margins soften.
“积压的增长不如过去几年的快速增长，这让我们有一些成员。我们可能正在接近恢复和稳定之间的拐点。”巴苏说。
CFMA成员没有看到信誉的收紧，也没有预见利润率的压力。宾斯托克（Binstock）指出，尽管美国联邦储备银行和全球金融不确定性的利率最近增加了利率，但本季度的“财务状况”部分仅下降了一分，这表明有钱。
西奇survey respondents also failed to note any tightening of credit for project financing. When asked if clients’ access to capital has changed over the past six months, 60.6% said there had been no change. Further, 22.0% said client access to capital had gotten easier, while only 17.3% said there had been a tightening of credit.
市场部门软化
In the CICI survey, execs also were asked to assess current and future market prospects in any of the 15 survey market sectors in which they now work. Respondents reported an across-the-board softening in market growth. Indeed, the CICI ratings fell in 13 of the 15 markets surveyed.
The biggest decline was in the petroleum sector, where weak oil prices have begun to take their toll. Petroleum came in at a 28 CICI rating, down 17 points from the fourth quarter. Also down sharply was the commercial building sector, which dropped to a 54 CICI rating in the first quarter from a fourth-quarter 62 rating. The industrial-and-manufacturing and power sectors were both off by six points, as was the distribution-and-warehouse sector.
Transportation and K-12 education were the two market sectors that gained. The surge in the transportation CICI rating—to 68 points from 62—was expected. The previous CICI survey closed before the passage of the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act, which will provide long-term funding certainty for surface transportation, say transportation firms.
Although firms are worried about the future of the construction market and the overall economy, many remain confident in their own firm’s abilities to carry on. “In the Confindex survey, despite all the uncertainty, 41% believed that their profits would be up next year,” says Binstock.
