Over the past two years, construction industry executives have observed that, after the 2007-10 recession, the market’s long recovery seemed to be running out of steam. But the unexpected election of Donald Trump last month has caused a surge in optimism that the recovery has not peaked and still may have legs.

行业信心指数68The ENR Construction Industry Confidence Index rose sharply for the fourth quarter. It shows that, of the 213 executives of large construction and design firms responding to the survey, most believe market growth will continue through the end of 2017. The CICI index was 68 on a scale of 100, up 10 points from the third quarter.

CICI衡量了有关当前市场的行政情绪，并反映了受访者对未来三到六个月以及12到18个月以上的情况的看法。该指数是基于对11月16日至12月14日的ENR领先的总承包商，分包商和设计公司的ENR名单上向6000多家公司发出的调查的回应。新利luck

新的乐观局度削减了所有市场，CICI在本季度的15个市场领域中的每个领域都上升。这与第三季度的调查形成鲜明对比，在该调查中，CICI评级在15个部门中有10个。现在，本季度进行了调查的大多数高管人员现在看到他们服务的部门的工作将在明年持续增长。多单元住宅是高管认为在明年至18个月内下降的唯一行业。

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CFMA调查还显示了乐观

此外，新泽西州普林斯顿建筑金融管理协会最新的Confindex调查的即将发布的结果表明，同样，高管对2017年的商店更加乐观。CFMA每个季度都会对一般和民事承包商以及潜艇的200 CFO进行调查。

“The overall Confindex showed a significant gain in the fourth quarter, rising from 122 in the third quarter to 127,” says Stuart Binstock, CEO of CFMA. All four components of the Confindex rose in the fourth quarter, he notes. The “general business conditions” component was up six points, to 129; the “financial conditions” component was up four points, to 125; the “current market conditions” was up to 129 from 126, and the “year-ahead outlook” rose seven points, to 124, he says.

总统大选似乎刺激了日益增长的乐观情绪。经济顾问Sage Policy Group Inc.，Baltimore和CFMA顾问的首席执行官Anirban Basu说：“调查结果遍布它们。”他说，行业高管喜欢特朗普承诺削减法规并增加基础设施支出的想法。巴苏说：“此外，有了共和党参议院和众议院，他应该能够通过更多的举措。”

Another indicator of the “Trump bump” is from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index, which measures NAHB members’ optimism about the single-family-home market. On Dec. 15, NAHB announced the index hit 70 on a scale of 100, the highest it has been since July 2005.

此外，小型企业乐观主义的全国独立企业联合会（NFIB）指数在11月上升了3.5点，达到98.4。与裁员相比，预期创造就业机会的小型企业比例从净净9％的净攀升至23％。


技能短缺的恐惧

But Basu says CFMA members worry that a steadily growing market will put pressure on labor and materials costs. He notes that 55% of respondents say margins are improving now, but only 40% say margins will continue to improve in the year ahead.

宾斯托克（Binstock）表示，CFMA成员担心劳动力短缺的成本增加了18luck.cub，他说：“在最新的调查中，我们80％的成员表示，不断增长的技能短缺是一个主要问题，高于上一季度的74％。”

CICI调查使这一问题证明了这一点。新利luck恩问，调查受访者公司是否计划在2017年增加员工，有77.5％的人说是。新利luckEnr还询问了2017年计划加薪的信息。提供估计加薪的180家公司中的平均加薪为4.11％。只有一家公司期望在2017年削减工资。

A rising market also may raise materials prices. Nearly 60% of CICI survey respondents said they have seen upward pressure on materials’ costs. But there may be additional inflationary pressures. “The president-elect has spoken of more restrictive trade policies,” says Basu. The possibility of trade tariffs could raise prices of imported materials, such as copper and other metals critical to construction, he says.

在市场领域中，最大的评级收益是石油行业的13分提高，部分是基于欧佩克削减生产以提高石油价格的决定，同时也希望特朗普政府对能源的更多动力政策。电力部门也急剧上升，上升12分，CICI评级为67。

民事部门也看到了巨大的收益。运输升高7分，CICI评级为70分，是所有市场领域中最高的。水和废水领域获得了10分，评分为67，危险垃圾市场上升了8分。

尽管并非所有的调查受访者都认为特朗普效应将导致长期行业的收益，但大多数参与者仍然认为2017年是主要建筑市场的好年份。