Thomas C. Schleifer，博士

Every time a contractor signs a new contract, it is as if that company were opening for its first day in business. That is especially true now. The construction industry is operating in a new post-recession landscape, characterized by tighter margins, serious labor shortages and less room for error. The unprecedented market downturn weakened some construction organizations to the extent that they may now have difficulty financing the growth that comes with market recovery. Now more than ever, owners, contractors and designers need to increase risk awareness and understand that construction business failures are worse during market recoveries than during market slowdowns.

任何商业交易都有风险，但建筑的份额超过其份额。设计师避免使用它，业主更喜欢将其传递，并且承包商吸收了它。对于承包商来说，风险不是一个肮脏的词。在研究了30多年来承包商失败的原因之后，我发现了一个值得注意的事实：风险的假设是每个成功承包商DNA的一部分。

建造’s risk environment is drastically different today from what it was even 10 years ago, and the attendant risk factors are mutating just enough to be almost unrecognizable. The obvious risks are skilled labor shortages, subcontractor strength, capital availability, contract language and growth in general. It doesn’t help that owners perceive construction as a commodity.

Management decisions will continue to determine whether an organization will be successful in the current business environment. The decision-making process includes beliefs that must be reexamined in light of this new normal, such as growth is always good, some unprofitable jobs are unavoidable, and past success implies future success. These ideas should not be embraced by contractors that want to be able to react quickly to evolving markets.

The reason each new contract is like a first day in business is that, every time a contractor starts a new project, it voluntarily assumes risks that are not fully identified.

不能消除风险，但是如果识别，测量和理解，可以减轻风险。当然，说起来容易做起来难。例如，各方以不同的方式看待各种风险，而太多的风险归因于一个以上的实体，使识别变得困难，消除不可能和缓解措施是唯一可行的替代方案。量化和管理风险对所有者，承包商，担保人，银行家和设计师构成了巨大挑战。

Critically, the contractor of the future needs to learn an entirely new skill set to recognize risks hidden in the market, in their own management decisions and in the economic climate. Too often what looks like good news has the potential to be hazardous.

准备好的承包商将建立正式的风险评估流程和协议，并采用灵活的开销策略，可以轻松适应周期性的建筑市场。

When the market changed to expansion from contraction, unexpected and unrecognized risks were introduced. In this “new normal” environment, hanging on to old beliefs has become more dangerous than ever. Having recently been forced to downsize, construction enterprises now have spread their skilled labor force too thin and need to hire people who will be unfamiliar with their methods and bring only limited experience. Some will find that they lack access to enough capital and that buyers have sharpened their contract negotiation skills as construction continues to be viewed as a commodity.

The boom may be back, but conditions are very different.

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