The construction market is enjoying a decade of steady growth, and most sector executives don’t see an immediate cause for concern. But there is a growing sense of unease that the U.S. economy is softening, which could put an end to the industry’s expansion.
当前状况与未来市场期望之间的对比可以在ENR建筑行业信心指数调查的最新结果中看到。新利luckCICI在2019年第一季度（从去年结束的上季度）保持静态状态。在大型建筑和设计公司响应调查的205名高管中，许多人认为市场将在2020年某个时候开始下降。
This sense of an impending downturn doesn’t mean that the current construction market is in trouble. Only 3% of survey respondents believe it has started to decline now, and only 6% say it could start in three to six months. On the other hand, 25% speculate the market will start to shrink in the next 12 to 18 months, compared to only 15% who believe it will still be in a growth mode in that timeframe.
CICI衡量了对当前市场的行政情绪，该市场将在未来三到六个月和12到18个月的时间内进行。超过50的评级显示了一个不断增长的市场。该指数基于对2月28日至3月27日在美国领先的总承包商，分包商和设计公司清单的美国公司之间发送的调查的回应。新利luck
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CFMA: CFOs Prepare for Trouble
该行业在当前市场中所看到的与期望明年所见之间的对比更加引人注目这表明首席财务官担心2020年的市场氛围。
Each quarter, CFMA polls 200 CFOs from general and civil contractors and subcontractors. The CFMA Confindex is based on four separate financial and market components, each rated on a scale of 1 to 200. A rating of 100 indicates a stable market; higher ratings indicate market growth.
“The Confindex fell from 114 in the previous quarter to 109 in the current quarter,” says Stuart Binstock, CFMA’s CEO, noting it is the lowest rating since late 2010, when the industry was struggling to climb out of a deep recession.
更大的故事是如何看待市场。前瞻性的“一般业务状况”组件跌至11分，至102分，而“年度前景”的潜水次数下降了10分，至95分。
On the other hand, the Confindex components associated with the current market were stable. The “financial conditions” component remained steady at 115, while the “current conditions” component also was unchanged at 121.
担心底线
Even so, industry execs are watching news about the U.S. economy with growing concern. “I don’t know if it is what [CFMA members] are seeing in the market, or what they are hearing from economists, but they are worried about next year,” says Anirban Basu, CEO of economic consultant Sage Policy Group, Baltimore, and a CFMA adviser.
Basu says CFO members of CFMA are more focused on the bottom line than on markets. “There is a lot of work out there, but workers to do that work are getting more expensive, which means increasing volume does not necessarily mean increased profits,” he points out.
Despite the active market, firms are not necessarily awash in cash. Only 29% of CICI survey respondents report higher profits compared to this time last year, while 14.5% said profits were actually down. This compares to a year ago, when 37.1% said profits were up year-over-year, and only 11.8% said they had fallen.
Binstock notes a similar trend in the Confindex survey. In the last quarter, 39% of respondents believed that profits would be up next year, compared with the 27% who thought profits would be in decline, he says. The current quarter’s responses are in sharp contrast to the last quarter, with only 20% believing profits will be up next year, as opposed to the 37% who believe profits will be down.
公司在材料价格上找到一点救济的一个领域，目前的数字表明，即使在特朗普政府对钢铁，铝和木材等材料的关税征收关税之后，增加的增加似乎比预期的要高。新利luckEnr的CICI调查询问公司是否看到任何材料或设备的价格压力向上。
While 70.4% of CICI survey execs said they were seeing price pressures, this is down sharply from the 87.2% in the third quarter survey and 80.5% in the fourth quarter who saw rising prices. “People are finding that the impact of the tariffs is less than they anticipated,” Basu says.
市场现在可能很扎实，但是行业公司必须支付溢价才能雇用足够的人员来完成所有工作。巴苏说：“如果明年市场进入经济衰退，公司将被许多高价人群所困扰。”“因此，如果衰退到期，CFO开始看如何保护底线，进入经济衰退计划模式。”
