像死亡和税收一样，市场低迷是不可避免的。对于行业而言，这只是何时的问题。尽管当前市场不断增长，但行业高管越来越多地检查了市场可能正在放缓的迹象。
The contrast between current conditions and future market expectations can be seen in the latest results of the ENR Construction Industry Confidence Index survey. The CICI fell one point to 58 in the second quarter of 2019, from 59 in the first quarter. Of the 238 executives from large construction and design firms responding to the survey, many believe the market is beginning to soften and may begin declining next year.
This sense of an impending downturn doesn’t mean that the current construction market is in trouble. Only 5% of survey respondents believe it has started to decline now, and only 8% say a decline could start in three to six months. On the other hand, 30% speculate the market will start to shrink in the next 12 to 18 months, compared to only 11% who believe it will still be growing in that timeframe.
The CICI measures executive sentiment about the current market, where it will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period. A rating above 50 shows a growing market. The index is based on responses to surveys sent between May 16 and June 24 to 6,000 U.S. companies on ENR’s lists of leading general contractors, subcontractors and design firms.
|
相关链接 |
CFMA: CFOs Remain Wary
该行业对明年的担忧可以在新泽西州普林斯顿建筑金融管理协会最新的Confindex调查结果中看到，该结果表明CFO担心2020年的市场氛围。
Each quarter, CFMA polls 200 CFOs from general and civil contractors and subcontractors. The CFMA Confindex is based on four separate financial and market components, each rated on a scale of 1 to 200. A rating of 100 indicates a stable market; higher ratings indicate market growth.
CFMA首席执行官斯图尔特·宾斯托克（Stuart Binstock）说：“ Confindex从上一季度的109升至111。”他指出，明年的当前市场与CFMA成员的担忧之间的对比。
The Confindex components associated with the current market reflected a positive attitude. The “financial conditions” component rose three points to 118, while the “current conditions” component fell four points 117, still a sign of a healthy market.
另一方面，前瞻性的“一般业务状况”组件保持稳定在102，而“年度前景”上升了8分，达到103分。这两个表明CFO都认为2020年将是一个平坦的市场。
公共与私人
ENR 新利luckCICI指数也可以应用于调查中的15个个人市场中的每个市场。这些个人市场评级显示了公共部门建设现场的实力。本季度，运输的信心评级最高，为72。水和废水市场下降了6分，但仍获得健康的61分。
Much of this confidence in the public sector market can be attributed to state and local spending. “The strong economy has resulted in higher state and local tax revenue, which is a major driver in the hot public sector market,” says Anirban Basu, CEO of economic consultant Sage Policy Group, Baltimore, and a CFMA adviser. He notes that this strength comes despite a failure to pass major federal infrastructure spending bills.
On the other hand, some of the private buildings sectors are beginning to show signs of a strain. The retail sector continues to be the only market surveyed that shows a current decline, with a 37 rating. The entertainment sector had a 50 rating, a flat market; the multi-unit residential market, once the hottest market, has fallen to a 52 rating.
许多行业高管认为，增加的建筑成本受到材料价格和人工成本的刺激，许多开发商和金融机构都在重新思考他们的计划。18luck.cub
巴苏说：“在2020年和2021年，我们的首席财务官成员之间的悲观情绪越来越大。”他说，建筑成本上升使所有者和银行更难制定其备考数字。18luck.cub他说：“此外，2020年总统大选的影响存在一些不确定性。”
Labor shortages are on the minds of many in the industry. In this quarter, ENR asked survey respondents whether staff shortages have gotten better or worse in the past year, and 52.4% said shortages have gotten worse, including 5.1% that said they have gotten much worse. Only 10.1% said that shortages have eased in the past year.
此外，有66.8％的受访者表示，他们已经实施了计划来加强员工的招聘和保留。最常见的计划是开发或增强招聘广告和外展，包括使用社交媒体。
Many firms also are upping salaries and are adding or increasing the level of benefits. Among the new benefits mentioned were 401(k) plans, personal time-off programs, half-day Fridays, enhanced insurance coverage, travel and incentive bonuses, training and career path programs, and even free lunches.
