根据Dodge Data＆Analytics的数据，在2019年的前八个月中，与去年同期相比，建筑业开始下降了5％。数据显示，下降是由于住宅和非住宅建筑的下降所致。由电气和天然气工作刺激的非建造建筑比2018年的前八个月高3％。
“Heading into 2019, we had expected to see the residential sector pull back from levels reached over the past several years, and that scenario is playing out as expected,” says Richard Branch, chief economist at Dodge Data & Analytics. “Both single and multifamily housing have turned the corner and are now heading downward.”
道奇报道说，与去年的前八个月相比，一年到底的住宅建设低8％。Branch说：“负担能力和缺乏入门房屋的供应量继续阻碍了市场的购买方面，而空置的空缺率使租金开发商撤退，尤其是在纽约等较大的大都市地区。”
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While non-residential work declined 7% overall, commercial building starts increased 3% year-to-date, due to a rise in office, warehouse and parking lot construction. Branch notes that the boost in office construction was not expected, and is largely caused by large projects such as the new Amazon headquarters in Arlington, Va., and data centers.
他说：“尽管经济增长和商业情绪下降，办公室建设的增长仍然保持积极影响。”
On the material side, IHS Markit is predicting a 10.4% decrease in softwood lumber for 2019, revised from the 11.6% drop forecasted last quarter. ENR’s 20-city average price for lumber is currently 8.5% below this time last year.
“虽然我们预期略微softw价格复苏ood lumber in the second half of 2019, the increase in prices [spurred by mill curtailments and closures] will be counterbalanced by a lower demand profile,” says Deni Koenhemsi, senior economist, pricing and purchasing, at IHS Markit. “These two opposing dynamics will keep prices in check for the rest of 2019.”
IHS Markit预见到2020年木材增长了3.3％，比第二季度的3％预测略有上升。
新利luckENR的钢铁平均价格为20个城市的平均价格比去年这段时间高2.3％，这与IHS Markit对2019年增长2％的预测一致。
“Steel is defined by tepid demand and booming production—an unstable combination,” says John Anton, director of steel analytics at IHS Markit. “China and India are the culprits for overproduction. Other regions were late to react, but they are not really to blame for surplus or low prices.”
他继续说：“到2019年底，价格将薄弱，柔软度预测将持续到2020年初。我们假设低廉的价格最终将迫使生产降低并允许恢复，但已推迟到2020年下半年。透明
IHS Markit预测明年钢铁价格下跌1.2％。“我们将非常仔细地观看生产数据。米尔斯已经宣布了削减，但实际上并没有达到影响力。”安东说。
Looking forward to the fourth quarter of 2019 and beyond, construction is expected to continue to slow. Henry D’Esposito, senior research analyst at real estate services firm JLL, describes the outlook for 2020 as “increasingly dim,” citing tariffs as a leading cause. “The volatility around current trade policy has created headaches for cost estimators who are being forced into worst-case assumptions without any way to accurately predict future tariffs,” he says.
安东警告另一种可能的危险：天气。“要当心2020年的天气风险，而不是我们的正常警告。他说，澳大利亚旋风在12月至4月的风险始终是风险。“欧洲和北美远离澳大利亚，但钢铁市场是全球性的，以前的情节看到了全球的价格影响。”
