随着COVID-19的经济放缓，以及对石油，天然气和电力的需求下降，传统能源部门增长和资本投资的前景是暗淡的，即使不是完全严峻的情况。但是，即使有裂缝的石油和天然气价格，可再生能源也正在作为移动中的一个部门出现。
“这与我们计划的任何内容不同。” Black＆Veatch的管理咨询业务高级董事总经理兼副副总裁Deepa Poduval说，他专门从事石油，天然气和公用事业领域。“我们总是谈论石油和天然气以及行业经历的多个周期。这与此不同。”
Poduval说，大多数石油和天然气项目（包括大量的液化天然气厂）的建设仍在继续，但全18luck官网球政治和需求破坏使近期和中期的前景延续了前景。当前项目完成后，客户可能会在18luck官网进行新投资之前停止。她说：“我认为我们没有经历接下来的六到九个月的时间，而没有多次破产。”“另一端将出现的是一个更苗条的行业，拥有更大的生产者和更大的平衡。”
Andrew Wittmann, lead construction sector analyst at Baird Equity, says that for industry firms serving the oil and gas sector, “we see reductions [in revenue and earnings] starting in 2Q 2020 through essentially all of 2021, harsh cuts given customers are forecasting 30-75% reductions in capital budgets.” He notes one firm facing a 60% decline in oil and gas profits from its peak.
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Poduval预计全球经济放缓将accelerate growth of renewable energy and electric vehicles, but says the transition won’t be instantaneous. The drop in power demand has given low-cost renewables a larger share of production, providing power systems “levels of wind and solar power they wouldn’t have had otherwise without another decade of investment,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said in late March.
Energy Majors Shifting
Shell, Total, BP, Duke Energy and NextEra have in recent months announced commitments to growing their renewable portfolios even as oil prices bottom out at record low prices. Shell is investing $2 billion a year in its renewable energy business.
“We believe the market opportunity for low-cost renewables has never been greater in times when consumers and businesses deal with the challenges of economic uncertainty,” said James L. Robo, CEO of NextEra, the parent firm of utility FPL and one of the largest renewable generators in the world.
他在4月22日的第一季度收益电话会议上说，尽管与流行病有关的经济放缓，Nextera希望在2020年完成5,000兆瓦的风和太阳能项目，并在2021年在2021年进行10亿美元的电池存储。18luck官网到2025年，它的电网上的续签能量将翻一番，达到16,000兆瓦。
法国石油和天然气公司总计表示，在石油价格崩溃后，它正在削减资本支出超过20％。该公司仍致力于在非洲的每年1290万公吨莫桑比克液化天然气项目，预计将于2024年开始，尽管埃克森美孚公司在4月表示，它将推迟对该国Rovuma LNG项目的最终投资决定，这是在今年晚些时候与合作伙伴合作以降低成本的情况。18luck.cub分析师并不乐观地决定要多久就将这项耗资270亿美元至300亿美元的项目进行。
总强调,这将使任何削减$2 billion annual spending in its renewable energy units. CEO Patrick Pouyanne said he views renewables as an opportunity, predicting they would become 25% of its business in the future.
But the firm and others have seen clean energy projects delayed by the pandemic. in an April 20 article, Forbes says that renewable energy industries are “significant enough ... that they are exposed to macroeconomic forces as are the fossil-fuel behemoths.”
More than 106,000 U.S. clean energy workers lost their jobs in March, says an analysis of unemployment data by BW Research.
With more cuts expected, the clean energy and oil-and-gas sectors are separately angling for federal stimulus funds. The Trump administration is working toward an oil and gas package, but not a similar one for renewables.
离岸风怎么吹?
Even so, offshore wind power could provide a large boost for renewables. Approval of the first commercial-scale offshore wind farm, the 800-MW Vineyard Wind project off the coast of Massachusetts, is expected by year-end, James Bennett, renewable energy chief at the U.S. Interior Dept.’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management told industry executives April 21.
Steel will be in the water this year off the coast of Virginia, he also said.
Dominion Energy, teamed with Danish developer Orsted, will build the first offshore wind turbines in federal waters with a two-monopile pilot. Construction will begin before summer and finish before the end of the year, Dominion said.
Bennett expects 12 to 15 projects will be built along the east coast before the end of the decade, with a capital investment of about $25 billion. Construction and operation plans have been submitted for seven projects and another five are expected soon.
BOEM now is determining whether it needs to lease more territory for development on the Outer Continental Shelf to meet state offshore wind capacity goals, Bennett said. Other challenges include transmission, which he said “may need a larger vision” than one line coming on shore from each project. Offshore wind “will be a key component to energy in the future,” he said.
尽管贝内特（Bennett）进行了预测，但海上风开发仍面临当前市场现实的延迟。
去年，当Boem决定需要确定建造多个风电场的累积效应时，所有项目允许延迟，这将葡萄园风的最终环境影响声明推迟了17个月。
The BOEM official said COVID-19 constraints has affected agency staff, but he does not anticipate approval schedules to slip. “There are some challenges, but we continue to move forward,” he said.
石油价格太多
In New York, the virus impact has delayed until August public hearings for one key project, South Fork Wind.
But developer Orsted on April 22 told Maryland regulators that based on the Vineyard Wind approval review, commercial operation of its offshore project will be delayed until 2023. U.S. Wind, developer of a Delaware offshore wind project, announced on April 29 that it will delay its completion until late 2023.
Both firms, in public statements, indicated that their decisions relate to BOEM's announced delay last year in approving the Vineyard Wind project. Market proponents speculate that Trump Administration politics, which have not favored offshore wind, also could be a factor.
WSP Global Inc. Matt Palmer副总裁兼离岸风经理Matt Palmer表示，由于Boem批准的许可证可以在不需要的情况下加速近海风能设施的设计。
Still, the question of how the virus and the oil price crash will affect renewables has conflicting viewpoints.
The global energy transition to renewable sources was beginning to ramp up when the virus and low oil prices hit, making it difficult to compete with low fossil fuel prices, said Michael Grande, senior director of S&P Global Ratings said in a webinar held April 17. But he added that weariness caused by oil-price volatility could “ramp up renewable investments.”
