自从199号大流行开始使自己在整个美国的感觉以来，已经六个月了，现在的行业公司开始相信，由此产生的市场下滑将不再恢复一年。此外，行业高管认为，某些市场部门将在重返繁荣方面很长一段时间。
在ENR的最新建筑业信心指数调查的结果中可以看到对Covid-19的出现的关注。新利luck该指数在2020年第二季度下跌20分至36分，在第三季度仅获得了2分至38分。当前的CICI评级与2010年相当，当时该行业正在努力从2008年的金融崩溃中恢复过来。
措施执行人气指数current market, where it will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period. A rating above 50 shows a growing market. The measure is based on 303 responses by industry executives to surveys sent between Aug. 14 and Sept. 21 to 6,000 U.S. companies on ENR’s lists of leading general contractors, subcontractors and design firms.
One surprise was the CICI numbers for the overall economy, which gained 13 points from a 32 rating in the second quarter to a 45 rating this quarter. However, as construction is a lagging economic indicator, most respondents believe the industry recovery will be slower.
另一方面，许多行业高管认为，到2021年底，市场将重新恢复增长模式。在调查中，有42％的受访者认为，市场将在12到18个月内增长，而仅为25％谁认为它仍然会下降。
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CFMA Numbers
Another barometer is the soon-to-be-released results of the latest Confindex survey from the Princeton, N.J.-based Construction Financial Management Association (CFMA), which shows that chief financial officers are worried about the near term but believe that the end of 2021 will see a rebound.
每个季度，CFMA都会对一般和民事承包商以及分包商的200 CFO进行有关市场和业务状况的200个CFO。ConfIndex基于四个独立的财务和市场组成部分，每个财务组成部分的评分为1至200。100的评分表示稳定的市场，而更高的评级表示市场增长。
“The Confindex was unchanged from an 87 rating in the previous quarter,” says Stuart Binstock, CFMA’s CEO. The “business conditions” component of the Confindex also was unchanged from the previous quarter at 71, reflecting the concern about the current market. The “financial conditions” component gained only one point from 99 to 100, while “current conditions” dropped from 83 to 79. On the other hand, the “year-ahead outlook” rose from 91 to 99.
恢复时间表
Binstock指出，CFMA的ConfIndex调查还询问CFO认为从Covid-19-19倒退中恢复市场需要多长时间。在接受调查的CFO中，有25.6％的人认为市场已经开始恢复，另有19.2％的人认为市场将从现在开始一年。但是，有47.2％的人表示需要一到三年才能恢复势头。
目前的市场前景正处于每个人的想法。在本季度的ConfIndex中，有49％的受访者表示，他们“非常担心”或“高度关注”对近期工作的可用性。“这标志着我们调查中首次将劳动力的可用性取代为首席财务官中最大的关注，”巴尔的摩经济顾问SAGE政策集团首席执行官Anirban Basu说。他指出，有40％的受访者表示，工作人员短缺是一个主要问题，低于前几个季度的80％范围。
宾斯托克说，虽然工作的可用性是一个问题，但在Confindex调查中增加了关于工作竞争的评论很少。但是，巴苏说，随着衰退的延长，他听到竞争的轶事变得更加激烈。
As for COVID’s direct impact on the markets, ENR asked survey respondents whether they have experienced project delays or cancellations. Only 23.2% of those responding to the survey said they had experienced no project cancellations. Further, 34.1% said they had 5% or more of their jobs canceled, including 14.9% saying at least 10% of their work has been canceled. Also, 92.7% said they had experienced project delays or postponements because of COVID-19 concerns.
显然，行业高管认为，由于19号，目前的市场正在下降，以及它对经济所做的事情，并预计从疲软中恢复了一段时间。大多数公司都依靠繁荣的几年来依靠大型积压，直到市场反弹为止，他们正在争取新的机会。巴苏说：“现在是公司简化其流程并提高效率的时候了。”他说，Covid-19已迫使公司更加依赖技术来提高生产率。
至于恢复，binstock谨慎乐观。他说：“我们的成员认为我们已经陷入了衰退的深处，并相信2021将逐渐改善前景。”
