我听到的人认为我对未来太负面，真正的建筑市场恢复正处于拐角处。当承包商评估风险时，不要让对建筑服务市场的乐观情绪始终重要，这是什么真正发生的事情。

Now that the election is over, we are no closer to knowing when construction markets will rebound than we were before it. Even if the federal government comes to the rescue in the form of more construction spending and stimulus legislation, it still won’t be enough to pull markets out of their slide.

在creased federal construction spending is needed to replace construction by state and local governments, whose finances are damaged by diminished tax revenue. An even bigger unknown is a COVID vaccine or how the election results will affect its development and distribution, which is critical.

But even if we are able to get additional stimulus funding, increased federal construction spending and quick distribution of an effective vaccine, it won’t be anywhere near enough to return the construction market close to its 2019 high. For that to happen, municipal, state and private construction spending would have to stop shrinking.

Other industry news is not encouraging, either. I saw a recent survey that reported 90% of architecture, engineering and construction firms say they have experienced project delays or cancellations. If architects and engineers slow down, construction can’t be far behind. The Associated General Contractors of America reports that at least 75% of its contractors have experienced project cancellations or postponements.

There are also some multibillion-dollar projects across the country that have been canceled or postponed for lack of funding. Just a sampling includes the $8-billion high-speed train from Los Angeles to Las Vegas, the $10-billion Foxconn LCD panel factory in Wisconsin and the last part of the $9-billion Honolulu Rail Project, whose future funding is uncertain.

With a number of jumbo projects canceled or postponed, the big contractors will trade down and there will be a downward domino effect. Some of the email I get is from contractors saying they have no interest in huge projects, but they don’t recognize that when jumbo projects are taken out of the market, large contractors need to find something else to keep them and their staffs busy.

Market Recovery?

整个建筑市场将下来year by several hundred billion dollars, and there will be less work to go around. I have a model that indicates the industry will not return to its 2019 size for a minimum of 14.5 months, with a statistical probability close to 98%. This changes with new information, but short of a miracle, it only gets worse, not better. Yet I get emails asking, “Why don’t you look at the bright side?” I do, and I will report it when there is a bright side. One note I received the other day said, “Okay, you have been right so far, but the construction market’s getting better.” I wish that the “look at the bright side” emails and “things are getting better” writers had included data proving their arguments.

建筑行业的风险管理包括与市场的合作，而不是对它的蔑视。显然，这意味着计划预期的市场状况，这意味着将您的运营尺寸“缩小”到市场上。不幸的是，这涉及构成人员成本的高架费用，加上90％的人事费用。18luck.cub风险管理的对立面是试图以任何价格捕获不同类型或规模的工作，或以任何价格捕获不同类型或规模的工作，或者在不熟悉的位置中保持销售和规模。

The selling price of construction goes down in a declining market, so it is hard enough to profit from the cheap work available. Under these circumstances, performing less cheap work well and at a modest profit has less inherent risk than capturing and performing a greater amount of cheap work. It is a matter of measuring and calculating risk. A declining market has built-in, unavoidable risk. And it is always advisable, in my view, to avoid magnifying unavoidable risk by taking on more risk.