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here is a big problem with the popular and generally accepted construction forecasting method of consensus. When a contractor is asked in a survey how he or she sees the market six months ahead, or a year, or even more, you get an opinion—presumably an educated one. But there is no way to screen out optimism.

When many contractors are surveyed, you get more opinions—and more optimism.

似乎有些相信，大量受访者以某种方式暗示了准确性或验证集体意见。有些人似乎认为更多的意见消除了积极的偏见。有些人可能还认为负面偏见平衡了发现。

然后，媒体发表了调查意见，借出了更大的有效性，并且大量共识调查似乎淹没了基于数据的更科学预测。

Another problem with these surveys is that we tend to believe that majority rules. Reporting that 59% expect a market turnaround in six months, while 26% do not, and 15% are undecided, is often interpreted as that the 59% is correct.

许多承包商告诉我，他们倾向于相信科学预测，直到他们阅读了许多预测市场的调查会很好。然后，他们感到不得不与（乐观的）多数席位相处。

Why is this important?

当我们接受市场是周期性的现实并采用一种使我们在增长和下降期间繁荣的商业模式的现实时，建筑的失败率将降低。自第二次世界大战以来，七个重大的建筑跌幅确定，我们的市场大约每10年循环一次。为了在增长和下降市场期间繁荣发展，我们需要有一些迹象表明何时期望周期变化。

As soon as the market softens, competition intensifies, so a buyer’s market begins to develop and then prices and potential profits diminish. Trying to maintain volume in a declining market is, in effect, an attempt to increase market share—and increasing market share always comes at a price.

数据已经收集美国economic cycles since 1854, and the ratio of expansion periods to contraction periods has improved dramatically since then. We have enjoyed prosperity because our nation has spent a lot more time in a growing economy than in a shrinking economy. The problem for our industry is that during a down cycle, profits decline, losses occur and business failures escalate.

Business cycles in the construction industry are painful because we can’t control them.

We do not see changes coming in construction market cycles because we are not looking for them, but we can’t claim they are unexpected because they occurred on average every 10 years.

There are choices: We could train ourselves to see them coming or we could listen to research that calculates market cycle timing. A prudent construction professional should begin to expect a decline as the market approaches 10 years since the last cycle.

令人惊讶的是，我要求的大多数建筑专业人士都不知道市场是周期性的。尽管统计数据证明了这一点。

知道何时会发生变化

The importance of knowing when to expect a change in the construction market cannot be overstated.

要在下降周期中繁荣发展，我们必须与成长期间不同。未能改变我们在下周期中运作的方式是该行业在低迷期间持续减少的利润，损失和业务失败的主要原因。

我们可以通过调整运营来在下跌市场中繁荣发展。但这涉及变化，我们都知道这有多困难。如果我们看不到周期中的转换，我们将无法做出反应。

广泛的研究表明，我们可以预测建筑市场，因为它落后于美国的经济。这提供了足够的警告。

When the US economy cycles down, the construction market continues to grow for plus or minus one year and then cycles down again. When the US economy cycles up, the market continues to decline for the same length until economic recovery begins to stimulate construction spending.

Construction markets lag at both ends of the cycle “announcing” the timing of cycle conversions. The current and last recovery cycles were accurately forecast and posted, but there was very little acceptance of the forecast data because there is limited acceptance to begin with that the construction market is cyclical.

That’s why it’s so important not to bury the bad news in forecasts and not to focus, unrealistically, on the idea that things are going to get better sooner rather than later.