2021年的前六个月,大型材料的成本增加,增加了对联邦对主要基础设施方案的行动的不确定性和不确定性。尽管受到逆风,但Enr的建筑业信心指数飙升了1新利luck7分,至68分,这是自2009年开始以来的季度之间的最高单击。

The index measures executive sentiment about where the current market will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period. A rating above 50 shows a growing market. The measure is based on 207 responses from industry execs to surveys sent between May 14 and June 21 to U.S. companies on ENR lists of leading general contractors, subcontractors and design firms.

指数在all markets that ENR tracks, with the exception of power, which stayed flat. Confidence more than doubled in the entertainment sector and nearly doubled in both retail and hotels and hospitality. Optimism in the overall U.S. economy is even stronger, coming in at a 70 rating, the highest since the second quarter of 2018.

CFOs See a Strong Market

A similar jump in confidence can be seen in the results of the latest Confindex survey from the Princeton, N.J.-based Construction Financial Management Association (CFMA). Each quarter, it polls 200 CFOs from general and civil contractors and subcontractors about markets and business conditions. The Confindex is based on four separate financial and market components, each rated on a scale of 1 to 200. A rating of 100 indicates a stable market; higher ratings indicate market growth. The Confindex rose to a 115 rating, up 9.5% from 105 in the first quarter.

Confidence Index

Both the “business conditions” and “current conditions” indices rose 16.3%, to ratings of 121 and 114 respectively. The “financial conditions” index rose 3.8%, to 110. The smallest bump was in the “year ahead outlook” index, which climbed only 1.8%, to 116.

CFMA首席执行官斯图尔特·宾斯托克(Stuart Binstock)说:“如果您看一年前的2020年6月,[]确实存在显着差异。”他指出,自去年第2季度以来,“业务状况”指数增长了70.8%。

经济顾问SAGE政策集团首席执行官Anirban Basu说:“最引人注目的是对这一大流行的建筑服务需求的实力。”他说,建筑行业的恢复似乎与美国整体经济相符,而不是落后的几步。巴苏补充说,在Confindex调查中表明,更多的高管表明,他们的积压比一年前有所增加。

The economist attributes at least some industry resilience to changes pre-pandemic. “We saw a lot of consolidation in the industry, a lot of mergers, acquisitions, creation of scale [and] a lot of vertical integration with architectural firms, trying to internalize costs,” he says. That set firms up to deal neatly with cost concerns, lowered their overhead and made them more efficient. “And now with some segments of the economy really heating up, [those firms] are in pretty good shape from an operational standpoint.”

Efficiencies sought during the pandemic continue even as the pandemic winds down in the United States. “There used to be large pockets of [the industry] not being able to rationalize why they should invest in technology,” says Binstock. There is no question about the need to embrace new technologies now, he believes.

The industry’s chronic labor shortage may have been exacerbated by the pandemic. About 57% of respondents to ENR’s CICI survey indicated that staff shortages are worse than last year, with less than 9% saying that the gaps have eased. Most in demand are project managers, singled out by 29% of survey respondents.

But Basu sees longer-term changes by industry firms that are helping them to weather the storm. “Over the past decade [firms] have made changes in standard operating procedure and changes in organizational structure that have positioned them well for this period,” he says. The end result of all the efficiencies has meant that margins have often stayed strong.

The booming housing market is another cause for optimism. Basu suggests that more young Americans “are moving into their thirties, and often that coincides with a move to the suburbs.” The movement away from cities has been pushed along by the pandemic. “Ask yourself why Manhattan is so expensive. Proximity,” opines Basu, specifically to good jobs, entertainment and amenities. “But in a world of remote work, online shopping and streaming, proximity is not as valuable,” he says.

大盒子零售商破产后,零售空间腾出了,随着投资者希望获利该房地产,这一趋势推动了这一趋势。巴苏预计将加速郊区市场的投资。他说:“开发商追逐高估,估值不断提高。”