social Inflation is a term insurers are using to describe increasing insurance losses. It is fueled by societal instability and appeals to emotion and fear, which cause higher jury awards, larger settlements and the inevitable result—more litigation.

Covid-19现在有可能加速社会通货膨胀或实际减少这种通货膨胀，并以多种方式使保险索赔变得复杂。

在过去的十年中，原告的酒吧利用了原始的人类对恐惧的反应，以此作为提出判决的一种方式。Covid-19进一步分解了社会结构，并在我们生活的各个方面创造了不稳定。结果，设计和建筑专业人员需要新的方法来管理这种不断变化的环境中的风险。

我们是怎么来到这里的？2016年，牛津词典的“年度最佳词”为“后真相”。根据牛津大学的说法，《事实》是“一种形容词，被定义为“与或表示客观事实在塑造公众舆论中的影响力相比，而不是对情感和个人信仰的呼吁”。

As we emerged from the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, we began to see an anti-institutional shift that was, at first, based on the bailouts of banks “too big to fail.” Through the last decade, appeals to emotion and fear have proved both effective and overwhelming across advertising, politics and business.

随着“经营后主义”正在加剧，诉讼中也发生了类似的事情，以出版Reptile: The 2009 Manual of the Plaintiff's Revolution。The premise of the “reptile theory” is that plaintiffs can prevail at trial by speaking to, and instilling fear within, the primitive parts of jurors’ brains that respond to fear and have been programmed through evolution for self-preservation.

爬行动物理论试图用恐惧引起的情感反应来代替有关事实和情况的个人判断。

The pandemic has destabilized our society, upending familiar patterns of life and introducing new conflicts. Many risk managers anticipated that it would bring about a return to a more sober and calculated approach to risk, driven by science and reason.

In fact, the opposite might be true. Methods that exploit fear and emotion as primary vehicles of persuasion are now even more common across society. According to a 2021 study by the jury consulting firm Magna Legal Services, more than 80% of prospective jurors believe their role is “guardian of the community,” rather than simple arbiters of the facts of a case. That figure is up more than 30% from before the pandemic.

接下来的十年风险管理将在很大程度上取决于人类状况如何应对恐惧和情感本能。当我们分析从大流行中学到的经验教训时，我们如何管理建筑师和工程师后世界中面临的风险？

'How Much Do You Want My Client to Give You?'

First, we must change our mindset by applying contemporary, creative and open-minded strategies to navigate this new reality.

其次，我们应该将手指放在脉搏上。我们的文化和政治反映在我们的陪审团，法官和诉讼人中。保险公司，律师和客户必须根据每种情况的细节不断重新评估其风险食欲。企业在整个法律司法管辖区实践，随着态度和争议解决方案的变化，这尤其如此。防御棒让“爬行动物理论”在其发表近十年后潜入它。现在必须调整。

第三，我们对“事实”的看法可能比我们想要的要小。我们可能需要问自己更多以情感为导向的问题：主人为什么会陷入困境？人身伤害原告为什么要我们的钱？当我是一名诉讼人时，我会在证词中提出的两个简单但关键的问题是：“您要我的客户给您多少钱？”那么为什么？”回答是在说明。

Fourth, we need to understand that, like facts, contracts don’t always matter. In some cases, equity, empathy and conscience may supplant the “deal” that was agreed to, even between sophisticated businesses. Consider a hypothetical in which an environmentally friendly business would likely fail if forced to pay what's required by a contractual clause that shifts the attorney’s fee to the other party. Will jurors follow their heads, or their hearts, in deciding whether to uphold the contract? We must be mindful of how a third party might look at a deal when drafting and negotiating contractual language.

第五,似乎现在每个人都是一个“专家”n every field. When everyone is an expert, nobody is an expert. Thus, we need to reassess our reliance on expert witness testimony. We must ask, does the expert appear trustworthy? Is the expert emotionally calibrated to fear the same things our juries fear?

最后，陪审团越来越不可预测，这可能会使仲裁更具吸引力。

最重要的是，从高度情感的角度来看，其他人和政党可能会陷入问题。请记住，今天，不再仅通过良好的工作和强大的合同来为风险管理和争议解决计划提供。

因此，我的建议是仔细选择您的客户，并在索赔时与保险经纪人，索赔专家和律师紧密合作。他们了解诉讼环境如何变化，并可以帮助您减轻曝光率。

迈克尔德国人manages claims for design and construction professional clients at specialist insurer Beazley, and oversees its specialty professions claims portfolio. Previously a construction litigator in Washington, D.C., he can be reached at michael.germano@beazley.com.