Photo By AP Wideworld
Water overtopped non-federal levees in Plaquemines Parish, outside the protected zone. They were cut to relieve the impounded flood.
Map Courtesy of USACE

尽管这种语调异常地是民事的,但随着防御圈以外的洪水泛滥,批评者在路易斯安那州的刀具锐利,这使新奥尔良免受了8月26日至29日的艾萨克飓风的风暴潮的侵害。

风暴潮在洪水防御系统在博尔格湖西端的新26英尺高的障碍物上达到14英尺,该障碍物阻止了连接新奥尔良上方蓬托湖(Pontchartrain)湖与墨西哥湾的两个主要入口点之一。障碍使以撒的风暴潮全面袭击。没有障碍,水将在城市边缘的能力较低,几乎可以肯定会淹没内部。

但是,无论如何,在2005年,美国陆军工程兵团在2005年从卡特里娜飓风恢复期间,在146亿美元的飓风危害风险系统(HSDRRS)(HSDRRS)之外的许多地区发生了异常洪水。

艾萨克(Isaac)淹没的地区包括普拉克梅斯(Plaquemines)的大部分地区,下杰斐逊(Lower John John),施洗者圣约翰(St. John John),以及圣塔曼尼(St. Tammany)和坦p派人士(Tangipahoa)的某些地区,包括拉普拉斯(Laplace)镇,位于pontchartrain湖的远端。

Many shocked residents of those flooded areas and some of their elected officials are calling for investigations to see if the new defenses made those areas more vulnerable to flooding.

In an Aug. 31 letter to Jo-Ellen Darcy, Army assistant secretary for civil works, U.S. Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) said "the good news" is that the hurricane protection system in metropolitan New Orleans performed well. "The bad news is that there was significant flooding in several areas outside the system, in many cases at unprecedented levels," he added.

Vitter写道:“这些领域的人们应该对外部独立专家进行仔细,科学和快速的审查。”他指出,一个“明显和合法的”问题是,卡特里娜飓风后系统是否以及在何种程度上“由于漏斗效果或类似的影响,在系统外部的其他领域中造成洪水越来越严重。”

然而,在结束时,Vitter在暴风雨期间对军人的工作表示了感谢,他说:“我在军团的新奥尔良总部嵌入了许多人,并亲眼目睹了许多重要的工作。“

美国参议员玛丽·兰德里乌(Mary Landrieu)(D-la。。仍然有太多没有保护的区域,我们还有很多工作要做。”

兰德里乌(Landrieu)在检查损失时的一条推文中说,艾萨克(Isaac)强调了200亿美元的堤防建筑和维护预算不足。她说,仅路易斯安那州就可以每年使用10亿美元。

作为回应,军团在一份声明中说,它将执行其他建模和传播后评估,以帮助更好地了解系统变化导致的激增行为的变化。”计算机建模的复杂运行的时间表正在开发中。

声明补充说:“我们预计结果将表明,涌动升高的变化是最小的,但会进一步评论直到科学和工程工作完成。”

建模和分析

军团在开发系统中进行了广泛的造成风暴救助建模和分析,该系统由133英里的堤防,洪水墙,封闭式结构和泵房组成。该军团在声明中说,设计浏览过程使用了“最佳科学和工程学”和独立的外部同行评审。

“除了内港导航Canal (IHNC) Surge Barrier, Seabrook Floodgate Complex, and the Permanent Canal Closures and Pumps on the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain, the footprint of the new HSDRRS system is essentially the same as what was in place prior to Hurricane Katrina," it added. IHNC Surge Barrier modeling prior to construction indicated the structure could cause insignificant, unintended consequences, the Corps says.

其他声音

Independent experts agree it is unlikely the HSDRRS worsened flooding for areas outside the perimeter.

公民工程教授兼计算液压专家Joannes J. Westerink说:“该系统与Laplace和Braithewait中的洪水无关。”“如果您考虑一下,该系统将与以前的相同占地面积。”这意味着新的防御能力并没有增加由旧系统保护的区域,当时旧系统最多可暴风雨。

Westerink说,鉴于他们的位置,一些新功能对风暴潮淹没其他位置的方式会产生可忽略的影响。他补充说,这场特殊风暴本身的特征是归咎于的。

Westerink是广泛使用的ADCIRC有限元浅水方程模型的共同开发者之一,其高分辨率分析被广泛用于灾难后的法医调查,并在计划和设计新的防御系统中。

Westerink noted that Isaac was a very slow-moving storm and, therefore, poured large amounts of surge and rainfall onto the region. The storm camped near the mouth of the Mississippi River for more than a day, with counterclockwise winds pumping water over an extended period of time into vulnerable areas, such as Plaquemines Parish and The Rigolets, an unprotected waterway leading into Lake Pontchartrain from the east. The strong and continuous wind drove water toward the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain and toward its western end, where extensive flooding occurred. By contrast, Katrina and other recent storms moved through the area much more quickly.

Westerink说:“这只是一场非常缓慢的风暴,长时间暴露和大量时间来填补Pont-Chartrain。这就是为什么您遇到这些问题的原因。”

马里兰大学土木工程教授刘易斯·“埃德·林克(Lewis“ Ed” Link)的另一位专家,主持了独立的多学科工作队,研究了新奥尔良的旧洪水保护措施的表现,并为他们的替代者提供了广泛的建议,并持有相同的观点。他补充说,艾萨克的赛道还与飓风造成风暴潮可能采取的最糟糕的道路相吻合,这是根据这些分析建模的152次飓风。

Those supercomputer-generated models form a suite of storms that span the gamut of possibilities in terms of intensity, course and speed. The models and the extrapolations made from them form a storm-risk baseline for the Louisiana Gulf Coast area. He says they were run with and without the new storm defense system during design development; they showed "absolutely no difference" in area effects.