新利luckENR信心指数急剧上升|2013-03-25 |新利luckENR |工程新闻记录

新利luckENR信心指数急剧上升

March 25, 2013

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The construction market has taken its lumps over the past four years, tempting a normally optimistic industry to get gloomy.However, for the first time since early 2008, the industry is seeing signs that suggest the worst is over and the market is gradually recovering.

The most recent ENR Construction Industry Confidence Index survey shows the industry's growing hope that recovery is at hand. The first-quarter 2013 CICI surged to a record 64 points on a scale of 100, which represents a growing market. The vast majority of the 376 executives of large construction and design firms responding to the survey believe the market has stabilized. Only 13% of respondents believe the market currently continues to decline, while 32% believe it is growing. This contrasts with the 2012 CICI for the fourth quarter, when 30% believed the market continued to decline, while only 18% believed it was growing. The CICI measures executive sentiment about the current market and reflects their views on where it will be in the next three to six months and over a 12- to 18-month period. The index is based on responses to surveys sent out to more than 3,000 U.S. firms on ENR's lists of the leading contractors, subcontractors and design firms.

The latest results are based on a survey conducted from February 26 to March 11. Survey participants are not unanimous in believing the recession is over, nor are industry execs ready to declare that happy days are here again. But there is a general feeling that the worst is behind us. "After four miserable years, construction is finally starting to rebound," says an executive at a midsize subcontractor in the Southeast. However, recovery will come in fits and starts, he cautions. Several participants worry that federal budget fights may stall a market that seems to be taking off. "The fiscal cliff has everyone in turmoil, so money is on hold for many capital projects," says a contractor executive in the Northeast.

One construction manager worries that three of its federal projects may be halted because of sequestration. CFMA Survey Also Upbeat The CICI findings parallel the soon-to-be-released results of the latest Confindex survey from the Construction Financial Management Association, Princeton, N.J. CFMA polls 200 CFOs from general contractors, subcontractors and civil contractors. While a Confindex rating of 100 indicates a stable market, higher ratings show growth is expected. "Our Confindex rose to 129 from 114 [on a scale of 200] for the first quarter," says Stuart Binstock, CEO of CFMA. He notes that all four components making up the Confindex grew sharply in the first quarter. The current business-conditions component of the Confindex surged to 147 from 123, while the outlook for the year-ahead component rose to 139 from 118, Binstock notes.

他说：“华盛顿的政治似乎并没有挫败我们的成员的乐观观点。”CFMA和CICI索引的积极跳跃使一些令人惊讶。经济顾问Sage Policy Group Inc.，Baltimore和CFMA经济顾问Anirban Basu说：“第四季度的经济仅在第四季度增长了0.1％，而税收则增加 - 通常是负面的市场指标。”但是，他说，该行业越来越了解对新作品的需求存在，并且市场将在今年表现出真正的收益。巴苏指出，一个积极的行业趋势是项目融资的可用性。他说：“银行越来越愿意，甚至焦虑地贷款。”18luck官网他说，但是，公共方面的预算担忧以及对联邦预算隔离的担忧，使该行业对项目融资的整体信心造成了阻碍。他说：“但是私人方面的新信贷可抵消公共预算限制。”

The easing in project financing can be seen in the CICI survey. ENR's survey found that while 56.4% of survey respondents said project financing availability has been unchanged from six months ago, 31.9% said credit for project financing was actually easing from the level it was in mid-2012. This compares to last quarter, when only 19.9% found project financing to be getting easier, while 15.9% found financing was getting tougher. Among the individual sectors, the CICI survey shows that respondents are very confident. Applying the CICI rating formula, the ratings for all markets grew except for the water, sewer and waste market, which remained flat. Further, all markets but one are now above 50, which is the CICI's benchmark rating for expectations of growth.

根据调查，娱乐，文化和主题公园行业为45。在页岩气开发项目和管道工作的刺激下，石油市场的78 CICI评级是最高的部门。18luck官网另一个仍然强大的市场是多单元的住宅领域，CICI评级为74。其他强大的市场包括电力（CICI评级为69），医院和医疗保健（68）（68）和工业过程制造（61）（61）。总体而言，建筑主管对2013年的市场前景感到乐观。但是，许多CICI调查受访者担心经济以及国家政治可能如何影响它。巴苏指出，将有另一轮债务辩论将在5月19日达到高潮。他说，2011年的债务天花板摊牌使行业信心融入了尾声。“今年有有意义的康复，但华盛顿仍然有时间把事情弄乱了。”

在这些市场中工作的公司的各个部门的前景

Gary J. Tulaczhas been, since 1993, senior editor in charge of ENR'sTop Lists,哪个bring structure to the huge global construction industry through annual surveys and market analysis of its key segments and major players. The array of surveys rank companies, based both in the U.S. and outside, which perform general contracting, specialty contracting, engineering, architecture and environmental services, among other specialties.

根据国内外工作的年收入，这些排名进一步分为特定的市场类别。Click herefor descriptions and schedules of ENR Top List surveys and access to information on current and past listed firms.

Gary also created the ENR Top 100 Green Contractors and Design Firms rankings and the ENR quarterly Construction Industry Confidence Index that measures firm executives' market outlook.

该调查数据由行业公司和其他企业，政府机构和学者使用，还可以评估全球建筑市场的健康状况。

A graduate of Fordham College in New York City and the Fordham University School of Law, Gary previously wrote extensively on employee relations in such areas as labor and immigration law and employee drug testing.