As a professional planner-scheduler I often hear the question: "The project manager or superintendent’s estimates of duration for activities these past three weeks has been low. Should I adjust her duration estimates going into the future? Is failure to make such adjustments understating the warning that our updates are to provide?”

这种评论与我是志愿者的美国成本工程师协会的一个重要问题有关。

AACE建议对过去趋势进行测量和使用以预测未来进度和项目完成日期的练习，现在可以公开评论。当我们收集评论时，AACE的领导者允许我与ENR观众共享文档。新利luck

建议的做法试图回答以下问题：如果承包商目前尚未履行其持续时间的承诺，那么为什么我们只是假设他们会在我们预测时突然开始满足基线生产率（即提出更新）？”

According to the recommended practice, the response begins with inquiring “whether such past performance is part of a trend or mere random variation or a series of unrelated bad luck.” Later it discusses what to do if such a trend has developed.

为了帮助不参与AACE的观众，我已将草稿上传到我的网站，并you can download it。请使用Microsoft Word标记功能发表评论，然后将评论通过电子邮件发送给AACE50R06@fplotnick.com。这是一个困难的话题，我希望有很多其他观点。

在另一件事上，别忘了今年的建筑CPM会议将于2017年1月10日至13日在佛罗里达州迪士尼世界的天鹅度假村举行。www.ConstructionCPM.com，我可以告诉您，我们的主题演讲者将包括现任AACE总裁和相关总承包商的前任主席。我们的诉讼轨道主题演讲将是ABA建筑论坛的前任主席。其他会议将由行业超级巨星主持，而其他会议将由新想法的人才提升。

At the conference, you can explore and train on a variety of CPM software products and pick up some "how to use" skills on three or more software solutions. You'll also be able to expand your skill sets with sessions on estimating, cost, risk, BIM, lean and linear methods. Our Prime Directive is to explore leading edge CPM scheduling concepts. To seek out new expert schedulers and software solutions. To boldly go where no scheduling conference has gone before.

与任何问题请与我联系。